OverviewDataCompare my rateLog in
Market Intelligence | Issue 001 •

Home Loan
Affordability in
South Africa

What 2,017 homeowners reveal ahead of the SARB's 23 July MPC meeting at prime 10.50%. Turning market data into smarter financial decisions.

Explore insightsView data breakdown
Homeownership structure
BusinessTech Poll • n=2,017 • Prime 10.50%
At prime 10.50%, 25bps cut
R201/mo • R36k / 15yr
On R1.2m @ prime flat, 20yr
Median bond
21-30% income
Sustainable • 14% of total
clxr key

Clxr Insight: Risk is concentrated: 36% of active bonds allocate >30%. 9% are above 40%.

Overview

The Numbers at a Glance

Own homes outright
Risk low • 962 votes
0%

Own homes outright

No longer exposed to interest rate cycles. Insulated from SARB at prime 10.50%.

Sustainable range
Risk low • 36%
0%

Sustainable range

Spend ≤30% of income on servicing their homeloan

High risk zone
Risk high • 9%
0%

High risk zone

Spend >40% of income on servicing their homeloan

clxr key

Clxr Insight: While 48% are insulated at prime 10.50%, 36% of active mortgage holders allocate >30%, fragile to any 100bps shock. Risk is concentrated.

Monthly income allocated to bond

Full distribution across 2,017 respondents. Descriptive labels only.

Distribution (n=2,017)Prime 10.50% • Active: 1,055
Peak: 47.7% own outright (962)350 of 2,017 allocate >30%
No bond
48%
Lower allocation
9%
Moderate allocation
13%
Largest active-bond band
14%
Higher allocation
8%
Very high allocation
4%
Highest allocation
5%
clxr key

Clxr Analysis: The largest group of active bond holders (26.3%) spend between 21–30% of their income on their bond. Overall, 350 respondents (17.4% of the full sample). reported spending more than 30% of their income on their bond, about one in three active bond holders (33.2%). At a prime rate of 10.50%, a 100bps change would increase the monthly repayment on a R1.2 million loan by approximately R795 , illustrating how changes in interest rates can affect households with higher bond-to-income allocations.

The biggest insight •

48% of respondents no longer have a mortgage

962 voters out of 2,017 have successfully exited the interest rate cycle at prime 10.50% and enjoy significantly greater financial flexibility.

✓
No longer have a home-loan repayment exposed directly to changes in the prime lending rate.
✓
Their household budget is not carrying a monthly home-loan repayment.
✓
This creates a materially different financial position from households still servicing a bond./span>
⚠
Where risk lies • 9% >40%
188 voters spend over 40% of income on bond

Higher bond-to-income allocations leave less room between monthly bond costs and the household's remaining income.

Insulated cohort • 962 votesRESILIENT
48%

Insulated from monthly repayment shocks at prime 10.50%

Own homes outright. Not exposed to SARB MPC 23 July decision at prime 10.50%. Opportunity to deploy capital elsewhere.

No bond
962
Flexibility
High
Risk
Low
• 23 July MPC • Prime 10.50%

SARB Monetary Policy Decision

At prime 10.50% (repo 7.25%), inflation has moderated, but global volatility keeps policymakers cautious. Market pricing 25bps cut as base case.

Rate cut
SCENARIO A • 25BPS CUT

Prime 10.50% → 10.25%

R201/mo relief on R1.2m @ prime flat. Welcome breather, provides marginal relief to the 9% (188 voters) in high-risk >40% bracket.

Rates unchanged
SCENARIO B • HOLD

Prime holds at 10.50%

Status quo extends restrictive costs. 17% of homeowners (350 voters) allocating >30% remain under pressure.

clxr key

Clxr View: At prime 10.50%, the difference between the two scenarios is measurable. A 100bps movement would change repayment by approximately R795/month on a R1.2m loan over 20 years, assuming the rate moves in full.